Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the possible negative effect of external crises, sudden stops in capital flows and currency crises in emerging market economies. We find that a current account reversal has an important effect, both direct and indirect, on economic growth, and depresses GDP by about 1 percentage point in the current year, when using a broad group of emerging markets. On the other hand, currency crises themselves, identified as a sharp depreciation, do not appear to have a significant direct impact on growth. Their overall effect on growth is positive, though rather insignificant from an economic point of view. The joint occurrence of the currency crisis and the current account reversal appears to be the most damaging event for economic growth. Both the direct and compounded effects are about 5 times larger than those of the reversal in the current year. The estimated cumulative losses for current account reversals and the joint crisis are 2 and 21 percentage points, respectively. The time necessary for the adjustment of actual growth back to its equilibrium rate is roughly 2.5 years after the current account reversal and 6.5 years after the joint occurrence of the currency crisis and the reversal.External Crises ; Economic Growth ; Open Transition Economy ; Panel Data

The Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna

The behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model of the Czech koruna is derived in this paper and estimated by three methods suitable for non-stationary time series. The potential determinants of the real equilibrium exchange rate considered are the productivity differential, the interest rate differential, the terms of trade, net foreign direct investment, net foreign assets, government consumption and the degree of openness. We find that the Czech koruna was on average undervalued over the period 1994 to 2004 by about 7 percent with respect to the estimated BEER. The significant determinants of the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna appear to be the productivity differential, the real interest rate differential, the terms of trade and net foreign direct investment.Czech Republic, equilibrium exchange rate modelling, ERM II, exchange rate misalignments, time-series analysis.

The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries

The paper focuses on the developments of real exchange rates and their fundamental determinants in the five new EU Member States (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia). First, the approaches that can be used for estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates are briefly discussed. Then, we use well-established determinants of real exchange rates associated with the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to assess misalignments of the real exchange rates for the five new EU Member States. The estimates of the equilibrium exchange rates are obtained by means of both purely statistical approaches (HP filter, band-pass filter) and applying several multivariate estimation methods to our reduced-form BEER model. The results obtained indicate that the tendency towards appreciation of real exchange rates in the economies under consideration have been driven primarily by fundamental determinants.Exchange rate misalignments ; equilibrium exchange rates ; ERM II ; Central European Countries

Current Account Reversals and Growth: The Direct Effect Central and Eastern Europe 1923-2000

According to economic theory, the capital inflows reversal – so-called sudden stop – has a significant negative effect on economic growth. This paper investigates the direct impact of current account reversals on growth in Central and Eastern European countries. Two steps to conduct the analysis are applied. In the first step we estimate the standard growth equation augmented by an effect of the current account reversal. We find that after a current account reversal the growth rate declines by 1.10 percentage points in the current year. The subsequent analysis of the adjustment dynamics builds upon the notion of convergence. We find the unconditional and conditional convergence coefficients to be - 0.47 and -0.52, respectively. This implies that the consequences of the reversal are likely eliminated after 3.3 years when the actual growth rate is back at its equilibrium level, ceteris paribus. Finally, the cumulative loss associated with a sudden stop in capital flows is about 2.3 percentage points. We infer that Central and Eastern European countries are relatively flexible in terms of adjustment and reallocation of resources given the findings in similar literature examining either a more general sample or concentrating on rather different regions.Current Account Reversals ; Economic Growth ; Emerging Market Economies ; Adjustment Dynamics ; Panel Data Analysis

The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna

The behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model of the Czech koruna is derived in this paper and estimated by three methods suitable for non-stationary time series. The considered potential determinants of the real equilibrium exchange rate are the productivity differential, the interest rate differential, the terms of trade, net foreign direct investment, net foreign assets, government consumption and the degree of openness. We find that the Czech koruna was on average undervalued over the period 1994 to 2004 by about 7 percent with respect to the estimated BEER. The significant determinants of the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna appear to be the productivity differential, the real interest rate differential, the terms of trade and the net foreign direct investment.Equilibrium Exchange Rate Modelling, Time-Series Analysis, Exchange Rate Misalignments, Czech Republic, ERMII

Jahresfeier 2005 der Universität Stuttgart

Inhalt: Fritsch, Dieter: Begrüßung (S. 9 - 16); Leibinger, Berthold: Grußwort (S. 17 - 18); Leicht, Dieter: Grußwort (S. 19 - 22); Jacobi, Robert: Grußwort (S. 23 - 26); Fritsch, Dieter: Die Landkarte im Spannungsfeld von Internet und Multimedia (Festvortrag) (S. 29 - 46); Eligehausen, Rolf: Laudatio auf Prof. Dr. h. c. Reinhold Würth (S. 47 - 52); Schlaich, Jörg: Laudatio auf Prof. Dr.-Ing. Walter H. Dilger (S. 53 - 56); Dressel, Martin: Laudatio auf Prof. Dr. Denis Jérome (S. 57 - 62); Bertagnolli, Helmut: Laudatio auf Prof. Dr. phil. Kurt Ludwig Komarek (S. 63 - 66); Wagner, Siegfried: Laudatio auf Prof. Dr. Egon Krause Ph. D. (S. 67 - 72); Pritschow, Günter: Laudatio auf Prof. Dr. Jan Koch (S. 73 - 78); Komarek, Kurt Ludwig: Dankesworte (S. 79 - 80); Aus der Presse (S. 81 - 82

Nest Site Selection and Nest Survival of Eastern Wild Turkeys in a Pyric Landscape

Pine (Pinus spp.)-dominated forests are commonly managed with prescribed fire in the southeastern United States to reduce fuel loads, maintain diverse plant communities, and increase habitat quality for wildlife. Prescribed fire alters understory vegetation, which is a key component of nesting habitat for ground-nesting birds. We assessed the influences of vegetation, prescribed fire, and landscape features (e.g., roads, edge) on nest site selection and nest survival of eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) in a pine-dominated ecosystem in west-central Louisiana. We radio-marked 55 female wild turkeys and evaluated vegetation and landscape characteristics associated with 69 nests during the 2014 and 2015 reproductive periods. We used conditional logistic regressions with matched-pairs case-control sampling and information-theoretic approaches to determine if vegetation characteristics within 15m of a nest site, distances to surrounding vegetation communities and edges, and prescribed fire history of patches where a nest was located influenced nest site selection. We calculated hazard ratios for covariates in our top-performing models to determine if any of these characteristics affected nest site survival. Turkeys in our study had a longer reproductive season and higher nesting and renesting rates relative to other populations in the southeastern United States. At the local scale, turkeys nested in areas with higher percent ground cover vegetation. At the landscape scale, turkeys nested closer to roads and farther from edges of 2 plant communities. Turkeys selected to nest in forest stands burned 2 years prior. Nest survival was not affected by percent ground cover, distance to roads, or distance to edge but was negatively associated with time-since fire; turkey nests in stands burned ≥3 years prior had lower survival than nests in stands burned the current year. We suggest that burning on a 3-year fire return interval is compatible with management for wild turkeys in southeastern pine-dominated forests. Includes supporting information

Design and Integration of a Multi-arm Installation Robot Demonstrator for orbital large Assembly

Space facilities for orbital exploitation and exploration missions are increasingly requiring larger structure to extend their capabilities. Dimensions of future scientific outposts, solar stations and telescopes undoubtedly matter to expand our horizons, power our planet or explore the universe. Due to the foreseen large structures for such applications, a single self-deploying piece contained in standard launcher fairings might become inadequate. Another approach is that large structures could be broken down into standard modules that will be built in-orbit. Assembling large structure in space is particularly challenging but the raise of key enablers as standard interconnects and advanced robotics opens a new horizon for such applications. It is assumed here that the large spacecraft structure and modules are equipped with standard interconnects (SI) that allow them to be mated to each other and to the robot system for manipulation/transport/installation, or to allow the robot system to move across them. This paper introduces the concept of a novel Multi-Arm Robot (MAR) dedicated to on-orbit large telescope assembly, its ground equivalent laboratory demonstrator design and preliminary hardware integration. The MAR is a modular robot composed of three robotic subsystems - a torso and two symmetrical 7-degree of freedom (DOF) anthropomorphic arms with non-spherical wrists - that are functionally independent and can be connected by the means of Standard Interconnects. The modular approach of the MAR reduces the complexity of the different robotic appendages and offers a set of robotic configuration that extends the range of possible operations and provides an intrinsic system redundancy that reduces the overall mission risk. To assess the MAR concept, a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4 ground demonstrator, has been designed to provide a framework that allows the multi-arm robot to execute its overall scope of operations in a ground laboratory environment. It comprises a testbed (dummy spacecraft structure, home base, storage area and mobile payloads) offering a space representative environment, a mission control center (computer, simulator and electrical/data support equipment) supervising the MAR's tasks, and a gravity compensation system (gantry crane and offloading system) for supporting the robot under 1-g

Demonstrator Design of a Modular Multi-arm Robot for On-orbit Large Telescope Assembly

The development of building blocks, and standard interconnects in particular, enables promising perspectives for the assembly of large structures on-orbit. By coupling these standard interconnects with dexterous arms, it is now possible to imagine orbital robots assembling, in-situ, modular structures to emancipate from launcher constraints. Such a mission scenario and related concept of operations are proposed within the ESA MIRROR project. It involves a modular multi-arm installation robot to address this challenge. This paper deals with the design of a fully representative breadboard for this innovative robot in order to prove its concept and abilities. This demonstrator features a ground equivalent robotic system, a testbed and necessary ground support equipments